Independent research notes
Notes on the economics of cloud and AI.
Written in the UAE. Numbers rebuilt from public filings, every source one click away, and a clear view at the end of each note.
Where cloud meets the desert.
The series
Published 4 October 2026 · Four notes, about 10 minutes each
Where cloud meets the desert.
Six cloud providers compete inside the UAE, a market we size at about $16B in 2026. Four notes look at Microsoft Azure, AWS and G42 in turn, then put all six players on one map. Who is building what, how big the market really is, and what we think each position is worth.
Start with the overviewPart 01 · AzurePositive
Microsoft's UAE bet
A $15.2B commitment, two regions since 2019 and a stake in G42. We rebuild Azure's UAE revenue and ask what Microsoft gets for the money.
Part 02 · AWSMixed
The leader that arrived late
The global number one reached the UAE three years after Azure. We size its share and weigh the sovereign-cloud gap against the deepest enterprise ecosystem.
Part 03 · G42Positive
The sovereign champion
Abu Dhabi's AI group holds three anchors no peer has. One of them, the US chip permission, expires in April 2027. We explain why we expect renewal.
Part 04 · The UAE mapPluralist
Six players, side by side
Where each provider sits, what it is committing, which workloads fit it. No single winner: the question is whether the UAE model becomes the template.
Rebuilt, not repeated
Market sizes and revenues are rebuilt from filings, forecasts and announcements. Where we estimate, we say so and show the arithmetic.
Every source one click away
Bold navy text opens the source with the exact passage highlighted. Dotted underlines open a plain-language definition.
A view at the end
Each note closes with what we think, what would change our mind, and the signals we are watching.